"A single row of election data (24 fields) encodes Nepal's caste hierarchy, gender politics, geographic inequality, party strategy, and constitutional compliance. This platform decodes it systematically using official government reference databases."
CORE THESISThis platform was curated by a single human brain and a few artificial ones. Spot a mistake or have suggestions? Contact here.
DOCUMENTATIONMission Brief
BEYOND THE
SURFACE
Transforming raw FPTP and PR election data from the Election Commission of Nepal (ECN) into structured, multi-dimensional socio-political insights using official government reference databases.
VERSION: 2.0
AUTHORIZATION: PUBLIC_FORENSICS
LAST UPDATED: MARCH 2026
AUTHORIZATION: PUBLIC_FORENSICS
LAST UPDATED: MARCH 2026
Mission
This platform decodes the 2026 Nepal General Election results (HoR — House of Representatives), providing methodologically rigorous analysis.
Academic Researchers
Studying Nepal's electoral politics, ethnic representation, and democratic governance
Journalists & Investigators
Seeking data-driven story leads and anomaly detection
Policy Advocates
Building evidence-based arguments for constitutional reform and inclusion mandates
Civil Society & Public
Exploring how Nepal's democracy functions in practice
2026 Election Context
The 2026 general election was precipitated by the September 2025 Gen-Z uprising, triggered by the government's decision to ban 26 social media platforms.
Nearly 1 million new voters registered (predominantly Gen-Z first-time voters)
Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) achieved near-total sweep of urban FPTP constituencies
Documented shift from "movement politics" to "professional politics"
Compressed Effective Number of Parties (ENP) score
Tech Stack
- Python 3.x + Playwright — Data Extraction
- Node.js + TypeScript — Enrichment Engine
- TanStack Router — Type-safe Routing
- D3.js v7 — Custom SVG Visualizations
- TailwindCSS v4 — Responsive Styling
- Vitest — Unit Testing
:: DATA_PIPELINE ::
Pipeline
- 01 ECN Results Portal Scraping
- 02 Devanagari→Arabic Numeral Conversion
- 03 Fuzzy Matching & Normalization
- 04 Enrichment via Government DBs
- 05 Real-time Polling (2s interval)
8 Analytical Dimensions
01
Social Stratification
Surname→Ethnicity inference, Community Match Score, Khas-Arya Over-Representation Index
02
Gender & Compliance
Article 84(8) audit (33% mandate), Sacrifice Seat Heuristic, Electability Index
03
Generational Shift
Gen-Z Power Index, Generational Change Index (GCI), Professional Politics metrics
04
Education & Class
7-tier education mapping, TU Pipeline Analysis, Institutional Class Signal
05
Party Investment
Party Inclusion Index, Dynasty Detection (Jaro-Winkler), Anti-Establishment scoring
06
Geographic Inequality
Remoteness Index (0-100), Seat Safety Score, Periphery Penalty Analysis
07
Anti-Establishment
Effective Number of Parties (ENP), Laakso-Taagepera Index, Party System Fragmentation
08
Migration & Diaspora
Out-Migration Rate, Voter Erosion Index, 2.2M+ disenfranchised overseas voters
Key Metrics & Indices
| Metric | Range | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Party Inclusion Index | 0–1 | Higher = more inclusive |
| Gallagher Index (LSq) | 0–50+ | Lower = more proportional |
| Shannon Entropy (H) | 0–log(n) | Higher = more diverse |
| ENP | 1–∞ | Higher = more fragmented |
| GCI | -∞ to +∞ | Negative = youth shift |
| WEI | 0–∞ | <1 = women disadvantaged |
| Sacrifice Priority Score | 0–1 | Higher = more likely sacrifice |
| Local Advantage | -100 to +100 | Positive = local advantage |
Authoritative Data Sources
All caste/ethnicity, geographic, and demographic enrichment is sourced exclusively from official Nepalese government databases. No third-party proxies or media-derived classifications.
NPC
National Population Commission
125-Caste/Ethnicity Surname Database
CBS
Central Bureau of Statistics
National Population & Housing Census 2021
NEFIN
Nepal Federation of Indigenous Nationalities
59-Group Janajati Classification
NDC
National Dalit Commission
23 Recognized Dalit Communities
MoFAGA
Ministry of Federal Affairs
753 Local Government Database
ECN
Election Commission of Nepal
165 FPTP Constituency Boundaries & Historical Results
Assumptions & Limitations
// EPISTEMIC_HUMILITY_PROTOCOL
Ethnicity Inference
Inferred from surnames (NPC DB), not self-reported. Always displays confidence level (HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW).
Non-Causality Principle
Correlation between demographics and winning ≠ causation. Surfaces structural barriers only.
Zero-Vote Records
Statistically impossible (candidate's own vote minimum). Flagged as anomalies.
Marital Status Proxy
SPOUCE_NAME of "-" or "0" is probabilistic signal, not definitive fact.
Sacrifice Candidate Heuristic
Approximates via correlating marginalization with seat safety. Does not capture party intent.
Remoteness Mapping
Covers ~7 major cities/districts. Unmapped districts default to remoteness = 3. Urban/rural threshold: remoteness ≤ 2 vs > 2.
Migration Gap
Secondary inference from CBS 2021 out-migration × ECN data. Does not account for internal migration.
Anti-Establishment Class.
"Anti-Establishment" status assigned to specific newer parties. Classification is subjective, used for comparative analysis.
Academic Citation
Nepal Parliamentary Election Analysis & Insights Platform (2026).
Version 2.0 — Post-Implementation Revision.
Data Source: ECN 2082 FPTP Candidate JSON (Live).